The Aftermath of GE14

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Therefore, we (citizens of Malaysia) should all assess, in all fairness, the performance of the PH Government in accordance with a set of generally accepted expectations, which should include, but not limited to, areas such as Sound Economic Policies, Robust Governance Structure, Preserving the Spirit of Constitutional Monarchy, Independence of the Judiciary Institution; and The Fair Rights of the People.

COGNITIVE DISSONANCE would be the perfect word for some of the recent Malaysian 14th General Election (GE14) voters whom have decided to switch from the incumbent Barisan National (BN) to the newly elected Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition. Despite the rumours or accusations thrown at the Election Commission of Malaysia (SPR), something must have been done right as the anticipated result did not happen (Continuation of BN as an elected Government). We can be assured of the independence (or perceived independence) of SPR; or perhaps, the tsunami was too strong of an inertia that nothing could have been done out of non-compliance that could have reversed the outcome. Today is 30 May 2018, exactly 21 days subsequent to the GE14 date of 9 May 2018; and many questions arose in the minds of the citizens of Malaysia after witnessing a series of drama produced by PH to date. Have we (Malaysians) voted correctly? This is the "Cognitive Dissonance".

To the PH supporters, this is a very unexpected victory and the sense of independence overwhelms their hearts. It is a joyful moment. It is the mark of a start of a new era. It is a celebration. This euphoria may or may not last long as these very voters will observe the newly elected Government to make sure their checklist is ticked from one manifesto to another. As and when these manifestos are met, they will become more convinced that they have voted correctly. But when expectations are not met, they may feel a swift of confusion and will start to wonder, who else could they have voted for because they would certainly not want to vote BN. At last, an easy and simple conclusion would be that none of the parties are worthy after all.

To the BN supporters who have, at the last minute, switched to PH simply because they wanted to clear the top leadership of BN, they will also wonder whether they have voted correctly. However, they are not concerned with the manifesto of PH. They are waiting to see whether the accusations (primarily on the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal) made towards the BN leader (or ex-leader) is indeed true (or not). Of course this will have to wait as numerous investigations are currently happening and God knows what the results would be. The last thing they would want to hear is that he (the BN leader), is innocent - which would mean, they have voted incorrectly. Whatever the result will be, we hope that it is concluded based on the rules of law and that sufficient evidence is obtained. One pervasive expectation that this lot will be having is how BN (or more precisely, United Malay National Organisation (UMNO), the leading component party of BN) will rebuild its stature under the new leadership. If and when the new BN is worthy of remaining in the battle field, they might just get back their lost votes come the 15th General Election (GE15).

Putting aside political inclinations, both PH and BN supporters share a common element, which is, they are all the citizens of Malaysia. They are all with the power to elect, to change, to throw or to reinstate any party or coalition of parties. In this age and era of social media, the power of perception and social influence have never been so powerful before. Even a perceived negativity regardless of its truth, can easily dictate the fate of a political entity. This epitomises the true character of democracy which is, the power of the People. Having said that, it is only fair that both sides give the current Government a chance to prove themselves. After all, it has only been 21 days of governance (so far). Therefore, we (citizens of Malaysia) should all assess, in all fairness, the performance of the PH Government in accordance with a set of generally accepted expectations, which should include, but not limited to, areas such as Sound Economic Policies, Robust Governance Structure, Preserving the Spirit of Constitutional Monarchy, Independence of the Judiciary Institution; and the Fair Rights of the People.

In its manifesto, PH promised to abolish the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Whilst this is a popular approach to make the People happy, a more serious issue needs to be addressed, that is, the state of the nation's financial position. It is understood that Malaysia rely heavily on a few key sources of revenues namely the Income and Corporate Taxes, the Petroleum Industry; and Consumption Tax. We all know that taxes collected from individuals are never going to be enough because the average salary is low and that the probability of tax evasion is highly inherent the current Income and Corporation Tax system. We also know that the price of oil has declined significantly in the past few years wiping a chunk of revenue related to oil and gas - which leaves us with the Consumption Tax.

Prior to the GST, there was the Sales and Service Tax (SST) as a method of Consumption Tax. SST is only applied on a few luxury items at a rate higher than GST (say, 10%) whereas the GST of 6% is low but has a wide range of goods and services. Both taxes are subject to consumption. If you do not consume, you do not pay tax. GST casts a wider net where it attracts more consumption save for key staple products like daily food raw material. The BN Government had resorted to GST to replace the lost of revenue as a result of the Petroleum Industry recession to the tune of RM40 billion per annum. This is a significant portion of an average yearly budget of RM250 billion for Malaysia. It is expected that reapplying SST instead of GST will generate RM20 billion. Therefore, we will be short by RM20 billion. The PH Government needs to come out with a plan to address this RM20 billion and they need to do it fast. There has been some talk of listing Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) to quick fix the state of financial affairs but this I fear, will not prove to be a sustainable approach. GST, thus far, remains as the best approach sustainability wise.

One may wonder how else can the PH Government raise money to fuel their promises, some of which, looks like very cash-burning items. For example, the abolishment of road tolls. The cash collection from the tolls is mainly used for either servicing its debts or incur on-going expenses such as maintenance, salary and the like. The former is capital in nature and once settled, poses no more issues - but settlement will poke a huge hole to the coffers as infrastructure financing goes by the billions. The latter (operational expenditure) is on-going. The toll companies need to be self-sufficient. They need the operational cash flows. Is the Government going to use the tax payers' money to pay this? This would make the toll management akin to a Government civil service unit - a cost centre instead of a business unit.

Having parked the worry at the back of our heads, the set of manifesto by the PH Government is indeed a citizen-friendly one and touches the key sensitive spot in everyone's heart - which is, a better life (lowering cost of living). This includes:

1. the promise to review monopolistic industries such as satellite broadcasting, telecommunication, transportation (eg. Eastern Corridor Rail Line (ECRL) and High Speed Rail (HSR)), supply of rice, supply of medicine, and land development (including Tun Razak Exchange (TRX) and Bandar Malaysia);  

2. the promise to enhance financial strength of the people such as the continuation of the BN originated social financial aid, BR1M, relaxing the repayment of education loans, PTPTN, make available affordable homes for the youth, and petrol subsidies; and  

3. the promise to reform macro and micro economic structures involving petroleum royalty allocation to the oil producing states and fiscal policies to stabilise the Malaysian Ringgit. 

Enough about economics, what about the other aspects of a good Government? So far, we have not seen any significant decisions that can impair the spirit of preserving the Constitutional Monarchy, the independence of the Judiciary Institution; and the fair rights of the People. However, we are seeing some cracks in the new leadership. Having four component parties with different ideologies -  Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM), Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) - prove to be an uphill challenge to assimilate their expectations into a synchronised one. Within the past 21 days we have seen politicians from PKR claiming that the PH victory was not due to the Prime Minister's lead during GE14. We have also seen strong demands from all component parties insisting their nominations for the cabinet posts. Today, we are also seeing some quarters claiming that the decisions made, so far, were all unilateral decisions by the Prime Minister without the cabinet's decisions. The Rakyat (citizens) might just ask themselves, "So, what happened to the promise of limiting the power of the Prime Minister and also consensus decision among PH component parties?"

Appointing the Prime Minister as the Education Minister (which was, of course, later undone and given to another Member of Parliament) did not put PH in the right footing. In addition, appointing a Finance Minister who is still pending clearance from the courts with regards to the on-going corruption allegations certainly pours oil onto fire. The list goes on and it even includes the u-turn of charges to the ex-Deputy Prime Minister that had released him from a jail term. All these happened on the back of the promise for the Rule of Law! The PH Government must quickly consolidate its position, recalibrate their engines and address the public to abolish worries arising from all the fiasco. The public has now become an unforgiving one - to the extent that they question the appropriateness of the Minister of Defence's use of the army air transportation or the Deputy Prime Minister's use of the Government jet for non-official reasons. Simply put, PH cannot afford to behave like the BN Government (prior to 9 May 2018); or else, we may see another tsunami in GE15 but this time, the opposite direction.

* kopihangtuah

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