28 June 2018

Misconception that the Role of Opposition is Not Needed



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THE MISCONCEPTION that the role of opposition is not needed in the nation's political landscape is a disease that has pervasively spread across the country particularly amongst those who are blinded by the euphoria of change. Both Pakatan Harapan supporters and Barisan Nasional supporters have the right to question Government actions, whether those actions are done formally or casually, as long as those actions have significant implications to the country.

The citizens have made their choice during the recent General Election and with that, they put their trust in the ruling Government to administer the country in the best possible manner. However, a healthy political landscape should continuously have an effective opposition that can provide the check and balance. Therefore, to call people bad names like 'idiot' or 'moron' simply because they raised concerns over matters of national interest involving the Government, is by all means, unfair and undemocratic.

Recently, the following statement was made in the social media:

"The former Treasury deputy secretary-general Ramon Navaratnam said the national debt, on the other hand, should be reported as defined by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and credit rating agencies, rather than an amalgamation of all debts. The debt issue should be reviewed carefully. It is believed that it is now wrongly defined and overplayed as ‘very bad’ with the total coming up to RM1 trillion. If current debts were compared to the GDP, according to the World Bank and IMF, it would hover at about 53%. That is fair and reasonable. But we should be cautious about it and not allow it to increase too quickly by spending money on projects that are not viable. So this 53% (debt-to-GDP ratio) is quite safe and acceptable. The “hype” of presenting the debt as dangerous could frighten small and unsophisticated investors who did not have the benefit of a good analysis of the debt issues. It might be good politics but bad economics to mix politics in economics.”

As expected, there were responses that are claded with blindness as a result of overwhelming euphoria that people developed after having the victory of changing the ruling Government during the recent 14th General Election. Some of those blind comments are:



Statement 1
To laymen debt is debt and they are worried to shoulder the payment. They want to know and the current Government is telling.

Response 1
Really? They are asking? Who is asking? The citizen was just fine with Bank Negara's assurance that the debt ratio is acceptable. Now that this self created formula of measurement has been announced, suddenly everybody jumps like a frog. This causes unnecessary panic. As a result, billions of foreign investments in both bonds and equity instrument have fled the country. That is really not sensible. Telling it in a manner that is inconsistent with the rest of the world or widely accepted benchmark can be damaging especially when foreign investors are elastic to such information.


Statement 2
Sometimes, I feel that the market prefers to be told lies on how good we are, rather than the truth. We have to look at substance over form.

Response 2
Are you impying that the formula used by Bank Negara Malaysia all this while and also by the other reserve banks of other countries, not to mention economists, is a formula that is lying to citizens? Come on, be pragmatic before accusing others of lying. If that is the case then all the other countries and their reserve banks are also wrong? We better move to Jupiter then. The point by Ramon is simple: the measurement formula to gauge the country's economic status is applied by all economists when making investment decisions. You suddenly announce using your own interpretation that destroys investors' confidence in the country and as a consequence, they fled. That is not good.


Statement 3
Whatever it is, "DO NOT MAKE CITIZENS' LIVES DIFFICULT". Most of the "middle-low-no" income earners for the past few years were living on tight budget monthly. Hopefully there will be more excess income under the new Government administration.

Response 3
What are you on about? We are not talking about citizens' disposable income. Do not simply answer based on emotions. Don't go on fuelling your euphoria of General Election with matters not relevant to the discussion.


Statement 4
RM1 trillion or RM688 billion, what difference does it make to us, poor Malaysians? It is still debt which needs to be paid for generations to come. Stop complaining and start working for a better nation for this country doesn’t belong to you and/or your crony. Also spend a bit more time analysing how the previous leaders can amass billions (tip of the iceberg) and how can we stop that from happening again. This is more beneficial to everyone. That status is fair but it is not important. My complains every other day (prior to the change of Government) is important because we finally kicked the corrupt Government out. Shouldn’t this be celebrated unless you are part of the corrupt regime? All I’m saying is we are good educated people, spend our energy to help this beloved country back to its feet. Not fault-finding on immaterial matters. No person, Government or country is perfect. But the fact that some said “it is just allegation against the previous Government” despite billions worth of cash and jewellery found just showed some people refuse to embrace the truth. Also this is very important for all of this is not just a matter of difference in political opinion, it is a matter of haq (truth) and bathil (false) which ultimately determines our last resting place in hereafter.

Response 4
That social media status is a fair one as it is highlighting an unfair economic perception to the country. In fact, that comment is from a respected person in the field of economic analysis. On the accusations on the previous leaders, we should not comment anything as we do not have the evidence. We should put our trust in the authorities and if some people are found guilty, let them face the consequences. Questioning matters of national economic interests is a more beneficial matter than talking about allegations that are still under investigation. To be honest, we should not dare to say that that allegation is true. If the police and authorities have obtained the evidence and the courts conclude it as true, then we should accept. So don't lecture on what people should believe as true or false. We must not react to half baked information and, again, as mentioned earlier, trust that the police will do their job. Celebrate? Celebrate when we ourselves do not know whether there is enough evidence and we want to celebrate based on a pending verdict? Perhaps that will be unwise. But to celebrate that the country is more open, that is alright, particularly for the chance to drive impartial journalism amongst media.



To put the above debate into perspective, one must know that billions of foreign investments have left the country and continue to do so. This is not an immaterial matter especially when it is on the back of a confused interpretation of a measurement definition like the national debt case. A financially learned person who has had fair share of analytics on Malaysia's economics and drafting policies like Ramon must be taken seriously. So, a responsible citizen must disagree when someone says that that matter is small. Fault-finding is a negative way of looking at it. We should call it 'constructive critism'. Do not be fooled by the misconception that just because we have changed the Government, the role of a political opposition needs to disappear.

As a closure, the below is the analysis of how much foreign investments have fled Malaysia (Apologies as it is not in English but I suspect you can understand):















* kopihangtuah





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21 June 2018

Identifying Opportunities Within the Creative Industry (in Malaysia)



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OPPORTUNITIES ARE IN ABUNDANCE in the Creative Industry. Entrepreneurs just have to identify them within the parameters that fit both their strengths as well as market acceptance. That is of course from an absolute perspective. Should one consider relativity, one would need to study the level of competition. Too much competition in a particular sub-market may mean that you do not enter the market at all. For example, if there are hundreds of production houses going after a handful number of television stations only, then why would you want to compete? It will only mean self-inflicted failure. Nevertheless, if there is strong value proposition, competition can be the catalyst for quality.

When a study was made on how the creative industries in other countries flourished, a pleasant surprise was uncovered. It seems that creative industry is the last missing puzzle to the evolution of an economy, at least for South Korea and the United Kingdom (UK). South Korea introduced its KOCCA movement about three decades ago that undertook critical roles covering production support, overseas expansion support, computer and technology convergence content, human resources training and infrastructure establishment management. Today, South Korea has become a World giant for the creative industry particularly in content and entertainment. It is this success that gave birth to the idea of fuelling the creative industry in Malaysia. Numerous efforts have been introduced. The question is, will we have to wait for three decades as well?

Malaysia has what it takes to achieve the intended success much faster than South Korea. This is because our culture is rich with creativity. The UK recorded gross production of GBP76.9 billion from its creative industry in 2013. That accounted for 5% of its economy. In 2008, it was only GBP61.1 billion representing 4.5% of the UK’s economy. This is a staggering 25.8% increase over a period of five years which is more than double the overall UK economic growth of only 11.4% for the same period. The subcomponents of the UK creative industry consist of filming, television, publishing, fashion, design, advertising, music, art, cultural offerings as well as digital gaming. These subcomponents are also the ones that Malaysia is thriving on.

A separate study done by UNESCO revealed that the value of World creative exports from 2002 to 2011 grew from USD198 billion to USD454 billion. That is two and a half times. When broken down into economic groups, the Developing nations showed an increase from USD74 billion in 2002 to USD228 billion in 2011. That represents a threefold in the creative industries’ contribution. Malaysia belongs to the Developing nations group. Interesting enough, Malaysia also recorded a threefold growth over similar duration where it grew its creative exports from RM1.9 billion in 2003 to RM5.8 billion in 2012. All these statistics are on the back of the usual suspects, namely, crafts, audio, design, digital, performances, publishing and visual arts.

Earlier it was mentioned that opportunities are in abundance. Now let us boil it down to the components of the value chain in each of the creative industry subcomponents. Let us start with the Creative Content Industry. For ease of comparison, we shall discuss within four main groupings: Development, Production, Distribution and Enhancer. The Creative Content Industry Development stage has potential businesses to be created which includes but not limited to educational movements, be it vocational or academia, or even training base such as talent agencies, seminars or simply rehearsal studio businesses. 

In the Production stage, there are multiple career options ranging from being actors/actresses, casting managers, writers, directors, editor, cinematographers and many more. In fact, pre and post production stages offer many more specialised opportunities such as visual effects, sound effects and computer generated images (CGI). If you expand your mind wide enough, you do not need to be a creative person. An engineer can start an equipment rental business offering their camera and production equipment for rental to the production houses. In this new age of high definition (HD), owning those equipment can be costly to the production houses. 

When a creative content is ready, it will need to be distributed. What businesses can you open? A chain of cinemas perhaps? Television broadcasting business is a good one. DVD sales used to be an avenue but nowadays, even the pirates are struggling to push the demand. Instead, a techy approach of downloading and streaming of content via multiple screens will be a better option riding on the technological advancement of content consumption behaviour. There is also the tail end of making money particularly those relating to royalty streams derived from intellectual property (IP) rights, merchandising or even logistics. 

A perfect example would be our two most loved sweethearts, Upinand Ipin. The two bald boys not only earned Les Copaque (the owner of the IP) television licensing rights for broadcasting, they had also earned sales of toys and school merchandises that bore the images of Upinand Ipin. Last checked, they also opened a restaurant in Shah Alam.

Let us take the supply of equipment as an example again. The supply of equipment and related engineering services are limited to a few players in the market due to the fast changing technology as mentioned earlier. We have had production houses struggling switching from standard definition (SD) to high definition (HD), and now to 4K, whatever that means. In fact, now we may even be talking about 8K or 16K. The point is, technology does not have a lifespan of five to ten years anymore. Even three years is considered too long nowadays. Therefore, will it not make sense to have a company that solely specialises in supplying such equipment? The economies of scale of such business will allow financial stamina to upgrade the technology as and when warranted commercially.

Our youth has a myopic view of what Creative Industry can offer them as far as career is concerned. Within the context of Creative Content Industry, the popular aspirations are to be involved in casting, writing, directing, editing and programming. If they had considered a wider spectrum, areas that do not have stiff competition can emerge as fantastic money-making models. Some of it are equipment services, engineering services, logistics, studios and manufacturing of props and merchandises that complement the creative content value chain.

Next, closer to the Creative Content Industry is the Performing Arts Industry. Many artistic endeavoursfor film and television are classically derived from performing arts such as theatre. Similar to Creative Content Industry, the Performing Arts Industry also offers many opportunities during its Development stage, namely, academia, vocational, talent agency, seminars or even studios. The Production stage also offers roles from casting, writing, directing, choreographing and an extension to all this would be the design and production of props as well as relevant technical expertise such as lighting control and stage control.

How do we deliver the performing arts to the public? This question alone uncovers many opportunities. Similar to owning a cinema, we can own a theatre premise that promises share of the ticket sales or strategic packaging with tour agencies for tourists. Along with the sales of tickets, merchandises can earn quite as handsome of a profit like its ticketing counterpart. Again, IP licensing from performing arts can cross over to other platforms for royalty income. 

The Malaysian Usman Awangclassic, UdadanDara, moved from theatre to publishing and to filming or television content. PuteriGunungLedangby Enfinitysaw the opportunity to also capitaliseon music sales for its dedicated song writing for the play. In fact, the performing arts show itself can be recorded for subsequent resale via multiple windows of opportunity. This is true for musical concerts as well as fast tempo shows like LawakKeDe by Tall Order Productions. In many cases, ticket sales from the original theatre alone may not be adequate to cover the costs invested in the production. Every penny from complementing windows help tremendously.

A typical theatre and arts student will just limit his or her imagination for choices of career to directing, casting, script writing, choreographing or even music for the theatre. A more robust thinking would suggest out of the box opportunities surrounding theatre maintenance, props manufacturing, merchandising or even IP licensing management. The point here is that the mindset of the students needs to be reactivated to be business minded. This realisationis slowly being addressed in the Malaysian universities. At least University Institute Technology Mara (UiTM) under its Faculty of Film, Theatre and Animation (FiTA) has started to offer Creative Consultancy as a subject to bridge the left brain to the right brain by inviting experts from the industry to share their experience on how to conduct creative activities as businesses.

Let us look at another fairly related industry, the Music Industry. The music fans' growing appetite for subscription and streaming services helped drive trade revenue growth in most major music markets in 2013, with overall digital growing at 4.3% and Europe’s music market expanding for the first time in more than a decade. We are now experiencing a shift of revenue source from physical to digital. Statistics from Global Market Trend 2013 revealed that digital related revenues for music contribution of 33% in 2011 has increased to 39% in 2013. Today, digital is at the top of the list. The Malaysian music landscape saw the same development whereby in 2012, the digitally earned revenues contributed 46% of the overall income with physical sales of CDs at 39%. This is a switch from the position in 2011 when physical sales of 45% was higher than digital sales of 43%. Within less than a decade since digital sales  start appearing in 2005, consumer behaviour has changed.

What opportunities are then being presented to our youth? As usual, those who are keen in developing new talent can stick to academia, vocational, talent agency, seminars or even studios. Those who are hard core production technical suckers will master their capabilities on recording, mixing and mastering the music production. Those inclining towards the right brain will explore their artistic talent in writing songs or become musicians. When all these have enough players in the market, to avoid stiff competition, there are alternative areas where money can be made. Distribution stage offers the chance for new comers to explore applications of pushing music online, manage concert tours, manage artists’ endorsements and merchandises and many more.

Touring with concerts alone poses many more opportunities from musical equipment rentals (also known as Back Line in the industry), logistics, engineering as well as exploitation of various angles of IP licensing. A business minded music industry player will realise that creating multiple source of revenues is crucial. A more 360 degrees consideration so to speak. Just a decade ago a unit of sales for the music industry was a CD costing RM40. That soon changed to singles of RM10. Today, it is down to the streaming of songs at 99 Sen each. In fact, it may be cheaper once you start buying subscription packages from the likes of Spotify.

Let us go off tangent away from content, performing arts and music. Let us consider fine arts, or better known as Visual Arts Industry nowadays. What is the financial performance of the visual arts market? Performance analysis of the visual arts markets have been conducted for more than 30 years. A study carried out by Wolfgang Wilke from Dresdner Bank in 2000 explained that the long-term trend in inflation adjusted art prices follows the general economic trend whereby art prices rise above average compared to the prices of other goods. Mei MoesesAnnual Art Index and SGP 500 Total Return Index for the years 2000 to 2010 provides the empirical evidence for such observation.

What does this really mean? On the surface it suggests that there is profit to be made from the appreciation of the value of art as well as from the sale of the initial production of the art. However, art is very unique to the following of a particular nation and it does not necessarily cross the borders as efficiently as music or films. To have a better appreciation of this phenomenon, we shall study the Malaysian visual arts landscape. Previously, Malaysia has never had any form of systematic market measurement for the transactions involving visual arts until 2010 when the first Malaysian arts auction was held on 8 August 2010 by Henry Butcher. That first auction recorded sales worth RM1.7 million.

Soon that number grew to an annualised figure of RM3.1 million recorded for 2011 and RM7.5 million each for 2012 and 2013 on the back of an average of  3 auctions in a year. The yearlycumulative transaction accounts for a compounding annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.5%.The monopoly advantage Henry Butcher had had come to an end when three more auction houses emerged from 2013 onward. They were Masterpiece, KL Life Style and The Edge. Even without auction houses, since 2006, prices for the better-known Malaysian modern artists have soared hundredfold in extreme cases as reported by John Kirchof The Wall Street Journal on 2 October 2009.

The Malaysian visual arts graduates must now grab the opportunity to ride on this bullish movement for there are plenty of ways to lucrative careers. They can choose to remain in academia and vocational movements such as residencies and apprenticeships. They can embark on the provision of studios, material or even installation services. Some may take a more historian approach by being the custodian of the arts narrative via roles such as curators, writers and the like. Then there are complementary services such as printing, logistics, cataloging, galleries and warehousing. Not all players in the industry wish to be artists. Some may be of value in areas such as conservation, exhibitionists or even as art appraisal experts.

On a more specified cross-professional expertise or faculties manner; accountants, bankers, valuers, auctioneers and insurance brokers may just find an expanded role in their work. In the end, the hard core players who wish to be a true artist may find it challenging to survive compared to their colleagues who had ventured into those complementing industry roles mentioned earlier.Why? Well, to be a professional artist, you will need to be patient and this will consume time. To produce seminal body of work alone may take months or years. One good example would be a famous Malaysian Islamic contemporary artist, Husin HourmainHusin spent three years without any income when producing his famous Awal Huruf Asal Huruf series consisting of thirty pieces of the Arabic alphabets Alif to Ya. In 2012, he did his solo show for the series and managed to sell all thirty pieces making it a sold out solo show. This had significant impact to the value of art produced by Husin Hourmain where a typical five feet by five feet work of RM15,000 each in 2012 had immediately gone up to RM20,000 each subsequent to the solo show. Today, a piece like that is worth RM40,000 as benchmarked to the latest sale transactions done at art galleries. 

Apart from being able to produce seminal pieces, an artist must also be consistently producing for a great duration of time to establish his or her prominence in the market. This is necessary to mark an artist as being serious in his or her career as an artist. A good collection of art can only have value if there are enough people in the market owning it not too many nor too little not too prolific nor too scarce. One must observe how and when art pieces are traded along the value chain and this has critical consequences on how art is being priced. An artist will typically sell via a gallery that he or she is being represented by. The artist makes money and so does the gallerists. The former produces and the latter does the promotion, marketing as well as run the exhibitions. The transfer of art from the artists to the gallerists is referred to as the Primary Market and the subsequent sale to public by the gallerists constitute the Secondary Market. Finally, the Tertiary Market would be the collectors disposal of their collection via the auctions.

Let us now move on to the Literature Industry. Apart from the Development stage that consists of academia, linguistic services, research and seminars, this industry offers a range of fairly remunerated career covering roles such as writers, editorial services, visual imaging, printing, translation and copyrighting. On the Distribution stage side, running physical or on-line stores is the main channel but alternatives may include e-book services, cataloging, e-publishing and again, IP rights and licensing. As mentioned earlier, literature can also have cross-platform opportunities such as adaptation into theatre plays, films or even television content.

The Fashion and Design Industry is probably the largest component of the building block of the Creative Industry simply because of its close relation to general consumerism and retail industry particularly the apparel and garment industry. The Global Powers of Retailing analysis done by Deloitte in 2014 revealed that out of all sub-groups of retail economic performance in 2012, the Fashion and Design Industry scored the highest for Return on Assets as well as Net Profit Margin. This is quite an achievement as its contenders also include Fast Moving Consumer Goods.

Another measurement worth mentioning from the same study is the level of globalisation of the Fashion and Design Industry where fashion goods retailers continue to adapt a more international profile. On average, their operations spanned 22.2 countries in 2012, which is more than twice the average for Top 250 retail products as a whole. Foreign markets accounted for nearly 30% of the sector’s total retail revenue. This certainly opens the eyes of fashion practitioners. We must not limit our creativity within the national boundaries. We ought to go beyond. A good example worth following would be Fashion Valet that has marked its presence in Singapore and Indonesia.

Business Monitor International (BMI) in Malaysia Retail Report 2014 forecasts that household expenditure on clothing will grow strongly towards the close of the decade in 2020 particularly in the 20 to 39 years age bracket. The sustainable Malaysian Clothing and Footwear Spending averaged at RM15 billion a year for the years 2001 to 2014. This is as huge as the Malaysian rubber product exports. Business models must be appropriate in maximising returns. Some may say that the conventional brick and mortar way is more convincing to customers. Some may also say that the millennial audience does not mind on-line purchases that warrants extensive on-line retail setup. A survey done across a portfolio of fashion designers under the debt financing scheme by MyCreativeVentures revealed that both physical stores as well as on-line stores need to be synergised. This is because the depreciation expense of a physical store is less costly than on-line sales commissions and the widespread of an on-line distribution channel captures untapped markets.

The Malaysian designers rely heavily on cheap quality production in countries such as China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand. Similar low cost high quality production services are lacking in Malaysia. This inadequacy itself must be taken as an opportunity to make business. What if Malaysians can offer services of such quality and costs? Like many other industries, cheap labour can be imported and transportation costs can certainly be much cheaper than having to transport from foreign countries. Such services include designers, illustrators, cutters, material procurement, tailoring and many more.

Other complementary businesses to the industry may include but not limited to fashion shows, trade shows, sales agencies, modelling, photography, curatorial, cosmetics as well as related equipment supply for tailoring work. Of course, there will always be opening for careers in academia, vocational and apprenticeship. Unlike the European continent where fashion retail movements are in accordance with the Autumn-Winter and Spring-Summer seasons, Malaysia presents a fairly unique opportunity of the Hari Raya peak as well as the ridiculous all year round “sale” that seems to attract shoppers since decades ago during the “Globe Silk Store” days until today under the “Jakel” spell or even the on-line craze of Zaloraor Fashion Valet.

The final industry is the Traditional and Cultural Arts Industry. This industry is often referred to as the crafts industry but by right, it should be viewed as more than that. The fact that it carries with it the cultural values and the historical richness, this industry should be closely synergised with the tourism industry. We are talking about items such as wood carvings, batiks, songkets, handy crafts, metal works, silverware, jewellery, traditional costumes, cuisines and many more. Again, apart from academia, vocational and apprenticeship, this industry can offer unique business opportunities simply because of its close relations with the tourism side.

Traditional and Cultural Arts Industry requires designers, material handlers, manufacturing capability, workshops, equipment supply, physical and on-line stores, trade shows, cultural shows, sales agencies, tourism packages, wholesale distributors, exporters, logistics, warehousing, catalogingand many more. The products in this industry are often priced low for local market. Pushing it for international market can provide means of higher pricing. There are many sporadic cottage industry type movements that are not consolidated into a solid and focused trading establishment. The point is, again, we must not forget that its ability to ride on the tourism movement of the nation presents limitless opportunities, if only we are open to explore.





* kopihangtuah





| mcmlxxv:viii:xxix |

19 June 2018

How Long Does It Take to Decompose?




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PLANET EARTH is the only planet that we know of that we can live on. Sad to say that our civilisation has progressed quite tremendously on the back of technological advancement that is supposed to solve the world's problems but fail to protect the Earth. Why? Well, everything that we produce has grave consequences to the planet. We have not yet found an alternative planet and hence, why are we still playing ignorants to the extent of being arrogants?

Recently I came across the following information for which, we, citizens of Planet Earth, should use as a guide to better preserve our beloved planet. We are its custodian and we bloody well be a good one. It is our responsibility. God save Planet Earth:

How long does it take to decompose ?

Paper Towel - 2-4 weeks
Banana Peel - 3-4 weeks
Paper Bag - 1 month
Newspaper - 1.5 months
Apple Core - 2 months
Cardboard - 2 months
Cotton Glove - 3 months
Orange peels - 6 months
Plywood - 1-3 years
Wool Sock - 1-5 years
Milk Cartons - 5 years
Cigarette Butts - 10-12 years
Leather shoes - 25-40 years
Tinned Steel Can - 50 years
Foamed Plastic Cups - 50 years
Rubber-Boot Sole - 50-80 years
Plastic containers - 50-80 years
Aluminum Can - 200-500 years
Plastic Bottles - 450 years
Disposable Diapers - 550 years
Monofilament Fishing Line - 600 years
Plastic Bags - 200-1000 years.

We request you, please share this piece of information in your network as much as you can.

This will create awareness amongst people that plastic is one of the major reasons related to the Global Green House Effect.





* kopihangtuah





| mcmlxxv:viii:xxix |


14 June 2018

Jangan Salah Konsep Televisyen Tontonan Percuma




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Oleh Johan Ishak

WAHAI RAKYAT MALAYSIA (dan Singapura dan Brunei Darussalam) yang kami hargai. Kita ini adalah negara kapitalis terkawal dan bukan komunis. Bila ada stesen televisyen (TV) tontonan percuma atau "free-to-air" (FTA), maksudnya kita tidak perlu membayar fi subskripsi (Subcription Fee). Hanya iklan yang boleh mendatangkan wang untuk stesen TV. Maka tidak perlu mempertikaikan mengapa banyak iklan di waktu siaran.

Jikalau stesen TV tidak mengiklan di waktu siaran, stesen TV tidak akan mendapat kewangan yang berbaloi untuk membayar gaji,  membayar produksi drama, membayar teknologi siaran, malah tidak dapat membuat untung setimpal sebagai suatu unit perniagaan. Jangan sampai kena buat Tabung Harapan TV pulak? (Hanya melawak).

Sepatutnya jika penonton tidak mahu tengok iklan, boleh sahaja langgan di pelantar rancangan berbayar seperti tonton.com.my (ada ruangan percuma dan ruangan berbayar RM10 sebulan), iFlix (RM8 sebulan), Netflix (RM42 sebulan), DimSum, VIU dan sebagainya. Di negara asing, stesen TV berbayar (Pay TV atau Cable TV) yang kena dibayar subskripsi tidak ada iklan. Mungkin itu satu konsep yang perlu diketengahkan?

Apabila pihak stesen TV mahu manarik pengiklan, satu konsep sukatan, iaitu CPM, digunakan, dimana secara ringkasnya, untuk setiap RM1 duit iklan, pengiklan mahu sebanyak penonton yang boleh. Jikalau stesen TV menyiar dokumentari 1,001 Penggunaan Pokok Kelapa, sebagai contohnya, ramai penonton akan tidak endah. Maka konsep CPM tadi akan hancur ke laut dan tidak dapatlah duit iklan.

Apabila stesen TV menyiar drama "ustaz kawin pelacur", berduyun-duyun orang menonton sehinggakan apabila ada yang tersangkut di dalam 'trafik jam' untuk balik kampung semalam memaksa diri untuk melanggan tonton.com.my hanya untuk menyaksikan 'finale' siri drama TV3 bertajuk Nur melalui telefon bimbit.

Ada yang kecam jalan cerita seperti ini tetapi ramai juga yang menghargai nilai pengajaran 'berbaik sangka dan menolong sesama insan' yang dimenifestasikan oleh drama tersebut sehinggakan hampir 10 juta rakyat Malaysia (30% penduduk Malaysia) menonton siri Nur tersebut. Pihak pengurusan stesen TV3 amat berterima-kasih kepada rakyat Malaysia. Ini adalah sukses yang memberangsangkan sepertimana yang dialami di waktu penyiaran drama siri Nur Kasih hampir 10 tahun yang lalu.

Drama-drama yang menyayat hati seperti inilah yang membuat stesen TV seperti TV3 menjadi pilihan utama rakyat terutamanya surirumah yang 'membawang' (menjadikan drama sebagai bahan sembangan hangat). TV3 adalah stesen TV nombor 1 Malaysia kerana mendapat sambutan penonton yang memberangsangkan melalui rancangan-rancangan drama di slot Akasia (7 malam), Samarinda (10 malam), Cerekarama (9 malam), Dahlia (7 malam), Lestary (9 malam), Zehra (9 malam) dan juga Iris (6 petang).

Tidak dilupai juga 'talk show' seperti Malaysia Hari Ini (MHI) dan Borak Kopitiam, Buletin Utama, Jejak Rasul, Majalah 3, 999 dan banyak lagi yang menjadi ikutan ramai rakyat massa. Tanpa penonton, pihak stesen TV tidak dapat menghasilkan keberkesanan iklan. Tanpa keberkesanan iklan, hilanglah punca pencarian stesen TV untuk membiayai ratusan pekerja di stesen TV. Inilah formula ekonomi yang perlu difahami oleh rakyat. Semoga rakyat tidak lagi meroyan mengenai iklan-iklan di TV. Akhir kata, Selamat Hari Raya dari kami semua di TV3, TV9, 8TV, ntv7, tonton.com.my, xtra.com.my dan CJ Wow Shop.





* kopihangtuah





| mcmlxxv:viii:xxix |

13 June 2018

Bicara Hutang Negara





www.kopihangtuah.blogspot.com




Bicara Hutang Negara Part I
By Abdul Rahim Hilmi Zakariya


MEDIA seharusnya menjadi medium mendidik, bukan merendahkan akal rakyat. Kesimpulan kepada video pihak media baru-baru ini, pinjaman kepada Jepun kononnya akan mengurangkan hutang kerajaan. Katanya kerajaan sekarang berhutang RM1 trilion dengan kadar faedah 6% - 7.5%. Maka bunganya sahaja RM60 bilion. Jika Jepun memberi pinjaman dengan kadar faedah 1%, maka bunganya hanya RM10 bilion. Jimat RM50 bilion.

Pertama sekali, biarlah saya sebut betapa tak cerdiknya Tuan yang buat kira kira matematik ini. Secara teorinya, penjimatan dengan jumlah sebesar itu hanya boleh berlaku jika sekiranya Jepun meminjamkan RM1 trilion kepada kita. Mana Jepun nak cari duit banyak tu Tuan-Tuan nak bagi kat kita? Realistiklah. Hutang mereka (Jepun) pun hampir RM40 trilion. Ketika ekonomi Korea diambang kemusnahan tahun 1997 pun, mereka hanya diberi pinjaman USD21 bilion (RM80 bilion) oleh International Monetary Funds (IMF).

24 tahun lalu, Jepun cuma bagi pinjaman 50.3 bilion Yen (RM1.17 bilion) bagi membantu pembinaan Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA). Kut mana nak bagi pinjam sampai RM1 trilion? Dan lagi, pinjaman hutang luar di dalam matawang asing hanya boleh dibuat pada kadar maksimum RM35 bilion pada satu-satu masa. Sila rujuk Akta Pinjaman Luar Negeri 1963. Setakat ini, pinjaman luar Kerajaan di dalam matawang asing adalah sekitar RM20 bilion. Paling tinggi kita boleh terima pinjaman Yen Jepun adalah RM15 bilion.

Seterusnya, memukulrata pinjaman kerajaan berkadar faedah 6 hingga 7.5% adalah jahat. Pinjaman paling kontroversi Kerajaan adalah  daripada kerajaan China melalui Exim Bank yang mana kadar faedahnya adalah 3.25% untuk pembinaan East Coast Rail Link (ECRL). Ia cuma tinggi sedikit berbanding pinjaman Jepun untuk pembinaan KLIA (3%). Kadar faedah paling tinggi (yang saya tahu) dibuat oleh Kerajaan Malaysia daripada negara luar adalah pinjaman daripada Kerajaan Perancis bagi pembinaan Stesen Janakuasa Paka pada tahun 1983. Kadar faedahnya adalah 10.6%. Cukuplah projek membodohkan rakyat ini. Bersikap adillah kepada kawan dan musuh.



Bicara Hutang Negara Part II
By Najib Saahari


TUN MAHATHIR baru-baru ini ada bercakap pasal nak buat loan dari Jepun. Pihak media segera keluarkan explanation pasal hutang itu. Cepat betul.

Anyway, kita letak politik ke tepi dan marilah kita jawab artikel tu. Pertamanya saya nak memperbetulkan fakta separa benar yang dikeluarkan pihak media itu. Interest rate untuk hutang negara tidak sampai 6% -7.5%. Paling tinggi pun 5% lebih sikit. Mana datang 6% -7.5% tu? Sebab dia kira Private Public Partnership (PPP) sekali. PPP tu kira sekali keuntungan concession holder. Kedua, dalam video tu cakap kalau kita boleh jimat RM50 bilion kalau kita rollover kesemua hutang kita. Undang-undang tidak membenarkan hutang luar melebihi RM35 bilion (External Loan Act 1963). Macam mana nak rollover RM1 trillion?

Video tu bagitahu yang hutang luar ratenya lebih rendah jadi make sense untuk ambil hutang itu supaya negara dapat jimat kos membayar interest. Ianya betul kalau segala variable lain remain constant. In this case, variable lain tidak constant. Even interest rate itu sendiri tidak constant. Benda ni kita boleh ulas berdasarkan risk to reward ratio. Benda paling basic dalam investment. Jom kita ulas satu persatu.

Interest rate yang dikenakan rendah jika dibandingkan dengan interest rate dalam negara. Kita termasuk dalam kategori upper middle income country so in general kita akan dapat floating term. Floating term basically ikut LIBOR+basis point. LIBOR rate tidak tetap dan boleh berubah. If LIBOR rate naik tahun berikutnya, interest kita akan turut sama naik. Jadi itu satu risk yang perlu kita consider sebelum bersetuju dengan cadangan Kerajaan.

Risiko lain yang perlu dipertimbangkan ialah forex risk. Semua sedia maklum currency berubah setiap hari. Perubahan ini adalah risiko yang perlu dipertimbangkan. Jika Yen Jepun (JPY) naik 5% against Ringgit Malaysia (MYR), jumlah hutang akan naik sebanyak 5% juga. On top of that, nilai interest yang perlu dibayar juga akan naik kerana principalnya telah bertambah. Itu kalau 5% , kalau lebih? Mungkin kita tidak dapat berjimat, malah hutang negara yang bertambah. Untuk makluman JPY ialah safe haven currency. Pelabur suka membeli JPY, ini akan mengakibatkan JPY akan menaik di masa hadapan. Mengikut analisa, JPY masih lagi punyai ruang untuk menaik dan sekarang JPY memang berada di dalam jajaran menaik. Itu risk lain yang perlu juga diambil kira.

Jika kita rollover semua hutang kita, kita akan bergantung penuh kepada Bank of Japan (BOJ). Sebarang keputusan yang dibuat oleh BOJ akan mempengaruhi kita. Jika BOJ naikkan interest rate, JPY akan appreciate dan kedudukan kita akan terjejas. Basically macam hilang kedaulatan kewangan lah. Kita tidak mampu berbuat apa-apa jika BOJ decide macam tu. As for me, this is the worst thing that could happen to our country. Doa dijauhkan.

So berdasarkan point-point di atas, pada saya risikonya lebih tinggi berbanding reward interest rate rendah. For those who managed fund, they will know right away what to do if the risk is more than the reward - Buang proposal dalam tong sampah. Fakta ringkas - Tiada negara bankrap disebabkan oleh hutang dalam negara dan Greece dan Venezuela bankrap sebab hutang luar negara.


Rujukan:






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The Resurrection of the Free-to-Air TV Glory




www.kopihangtuah.blogspot.com





By Johan Ishak


TELEVISION, or better known as TV, is probably the most influential media ever created by mankind. Many would think that the internet should get that credit but little do we realise that the internet has only been made commercialised over the last 3 decades, whereas TV has been around at least since the early of last century.

I am from the Generation X. We grew up with a set schedule in our heads ensuring us to complete our dinner before 9.00 pm so that we can watch Battlestar Galactica, The A Team, Knight Rider, Mission Impossible (the original) or even stayed up late to accompany our moms to watch Dallas, Knots Landing or even Solid Gold (yeahh! I know - what a cheeky lil boy I was).

The cartoon shows at 6.30 pm used to act as a biological clock in our heads to call us back into our homes after a football or rounders match by the street side. For the Muslims, we got free "mengaji" (Quran reading) tuition from Muqaddam. We even learnt to be compassionate from a syndicated foreign series from Japan called Oshin. The list goes on and on and the best part is, we cherished those moments quite sweetly even without the speed, mobility or edginess of the internet.

Now at an age I shall not disclose, but fairly seasoned, I am given the opportunity to manage not 1, but 4 TV stations, namely TV3, TV9, 8TV and ntv7. On top of that, I have an internet Video-on-Demand (VOD) platform to go with it called tonton.com.my. At this very opportune moment, I take pride in doing all I can to restore the glory of TV alongside the internet. I believe TV is here to stay for a longer time, if not forever. Once people believe that the invention of TV would mean the demise of radio, but it proved to be wrong. So I shall hope that the invention of internet will not kill TV.

The practice of freedom of journalism has allowed us to embrace impartiality. This, coupled with the speed that is powered by the internet as well as professionalism in delivering accurate news have given us a reward quite pleasantly. We are happy that for the month of May 2018, all of our news programmes cumulated over 400 million views by 17 million viewers giving an average of 23 times per person. 17 million covers 81% of the Malaysian TV audience across 7 million TV households.

Some may say that I am biased simply because I manage these TV channels. Perhaps, but, surely statistics from a third party international independent professional consultant and researcher such as Nielsen has to carry significant weight. Of course it does. Nielsen reported that TV3 is the No. 1 channel in Malaysia achieving 30% of the Malay market audience whereas 8TV is the No. 1 Chinese channel hitting 32% of the Chinese market audience. All stations sum up to Media Prima's impressive 35% overall market share.

For advertisers, particularly those who are hungry to feed their potential consumers, an RM1 is hypothetically split between the 4 stations in order to get a gigantic 35% coverage. This is certainly a lot more efficient compared to spreading RM1 across 100 other channels. It is simple mathematics. Although many would embrace the digital advertising space, it is not yet the time to put all of your bets on a single colour on the Roulette table. Put on both Red and Black. After all, the mass market who is still watching TV is the largest pool of consumers who will be drinking your malt drink, eat your instant noodle, apply your shampoo or even learn about products that are distributed via internet sites.

When a simple survey is done, we uncovered that the TV content in Malaysia has a strong mass viewership stickiness. This is true particularly with the favourite drama slots such as Akasia, Dahlia, Samarinda, Lestary, Zehra, Iris and Cerekarama. These drama programmes can go up to 4 million viewership reach. If a decade ago the country was stormed by an unprecedented drama series called Nur Kasih, a decade later now, a new series, Nur, is making its round of fame. This nicely scripted drama with strong casting and cinematography now soars proudly especially when it involves a taboo subject of an Ustaz marrying a prostitute (enough said).

The same can be said about documentary shows such as 999 and Majalah 3 that can each garner similar ratings. Our own animation intellectual property, Ejen Ali, is the No. 1 most watched kids show on TV and even our late night show, The Sherry Show, garnered 1 million viewers. To date, most of the weeks in a year reveal that the Top 10 programmes watched on TV are from TV3 at a combined unique viewers of 18 million TV audience which represents 86% of the Malaysian TV audience.

To top the black forrest with a sweet cherry, Malaysia's No. 1 entertainment award show, Anugerah Juara Lagu (AJL), saw a phenomenal average viewership of 3.8 million in its 32nd edition in February 2018. This has a tail effect of 20 million digital views when AJL was democratised as free content on YouTube. The winning vocalists, Syamel and Ernie Zakri, record a cumulative 8 million views that is still growing today.

To cut a long story short, these statistics do not lie. They are meaningful. To synergize its (TV viewership) power with the energy from digital activation is to slow cook a Briyani with a lamb shank in the pot of Basmathi rice. Don't just eat the Briyani rice without the lamb or don't just eat the lamb without the Briyani rice. Eat together. After all, my doctor did advise me that we must not eat protein alone. We must combine it with some carbohidrate. In this case, take both TV and digital. I promise you that you will not be disappointed. Long live TV.





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